Trojan horses of our time.

The second half of 2009-year media actively advertise the success in overcoming the financial crisis. It would seem to be afraid of nothing else, all more or less returned to normal. But is it really?

Consider the factors that could cause significant turmoil in the global economy and, thus, lead to significant exchange rate fluctuations:

1. CDS.

In 1994, bankers JP Morgan invented unregulated tool that will reduce bank reserves in order to extract additional profit through the use of the liberated capital. This tool was named CDS - Credit Default Swap (credit default swaps). Its essence lies in credit insurance and risk of default. After 14 years of unregulated derivatives bubble CDS has led to a crisis of the banking sector, put on the brink of ruin of the largest American insurance company AIG.

Nobody really knows the exact amount of CDS, are now in circulation. But even approximate figures and then pour over ice: it is believed that at the end of the second quarter of 2008, the CDS market was 15.5 trillion in the U.S. and 58 trillion in the world. Monstrosity of the derivative tumors can be present only in comparison: gross domestic product of the United States in 2007 amounted to 13.8 trillion, and GDP of the world - 54.3 trillion. But 58 trillion dollars - is only the visible part of the dark and mysterious iceberg on behalf of the CDS!

Nationalization of AIG and the unprecedented steps the U.S. government kept from bankruptcy system-companies and banks. But the bubble derivatives is still here. The problem remains, and awaits its decision.

2. Emission.

In connection with the financial crisis leading world powers have begun to issue new money. The media are trying to hide this fact, calling the issue "quantitative easing". The fact that these efforts demonstrates the willingness of the authorities to make this implicit information to citizens. After the huge issue of money, unsecured demand and real goods, can lead to high inflation. No new money will be linked in the banking sector and will spill over into the consumer market, changes in rates of major currencies may remain in certain reasonable limits. However, the guarantees that will not happen the same as the collapse in late 2008, one can not give. Everyone understands that money is getting cheaper and are prepared, in which case, get rid of those papers, which will look particularly weak.

3. Quasi-money.

There is an erroneous view that to issue money are entitled to only Central Bank (CB). In fact, this view is fundamentally mistaken. With little creative accounting banks have the opportunity create virtual quasi-money of debts, which are further used in the economy as usual, the real money.

Because making money out of nothing, it lucrative, all having such an opportunity use it without a twinge of conscience. Over the past fifty years, banks have created astounding debt pyramid virtual quasi-money. As long as investors do not take away from the banks of the pyramid for a critical mass of real money, the pyramid will stay. If investors begin to withdraw deposits, banks will take action for the repatriation of assets. What usually leads to significant market fluctuations.

---